3rd and Long: What's the Playcall?

I think we can all agree that if your team is in a 3rd & 20+ situation...we aren't very hopeful or happy fans. I mean over the past 6 seasons offenses only convert 5.5% of the time in these situations. But you know what's even more depleting as a fan than a 3rd & 20+? A screen pass or handoff on 3rd & 20+. I've always wondered why do offensive coordinators get so conservative on these long down and distances, so I looked into the numbers to see what the best playcall is on 3rd & long.

The Current State of 3rd and a Mile

Over the past 10 seasons there have been 2,050 3rd & 20+ attempts, here is the breakdown of the play calling (these numbers only add up to 85% because 15% of the time is either a penalty, sack, or QB scramble.)

• Run: 17.7%

• Pass Behind LOS: 20.1%

• Short Pass (1-9 air yds): 28.5%

• Medium Pass (10-19 air yds): 9.2%

• Deep Pass (20+ air yds): 10%

Now let's look at the conversion rates for each type of play (the overall conversion rate is 5.5%):

• Run: 2.5%

• Pass Behind LOS: 2.9%

• Short Pass (1-9 air yds): 2.1%

• Medium Pass (10-19 air yards): 7.4%

• Deep Pass (20+ air yards): 29.6%

This may come as no surprise, it makes sense that the farther you throw the ball down the field the higher chance you have of converting. Another important thing to note is that passes over 20+ air yards have about a 5% chance of a defensive pass interference, deep passes has closer to a 34% chance of converting.

The Risk

You're also probably thinking about that more reward comes with more risk. Let's look at the interception rate for the different yardages over 20+ yards.

• Passes 20-30 air yards: 7.3%

• Passes 31-40 air yards: 9.5%

• Passes 41+ air yards: 12.9%

According to Pro-Football-Reference, the average net punting distance (punt distance - return yards) is 40.1 yards. So you could argue that throwing an interception on pass 41+ yards is actually a positive for the offense (assuming the offense makes a quick tackle).

The Playcall

We are starting to see a clearer picture of what playcall makes the most sense based on the data. Currently, offenses are choosing to be more conservative on these long 3rd downs. Offenses are throwing the ball short of the sticks or running the ball about 75% of the time and converting about 16% of the time. Offenses throw the ball past the sticks 10% of the time, but convert 29% of the time (34% if you include DPI). The downside of the throwing the long ball, is an interception rate of about 9%, but when you take into account of an average net punting distance of just 40.1 yards, a 3rd down interception on a deep pass is less detrimental to field position than you would initially assume.

So that's a lot of info, but I think it shows that offensive coordinators NEED to be more aggresive on 3rd & long. Now, this is a minor play in the grand scheme of things. Teams only face this situation about 6.5 times per year, but a coach's job is to call the play that gives your team the best chance to win. Throwing the ball past the sticks gives your team the chance of extending double the drives than if you threw a shorter pass or ran the ball.