Can FCS Stats Predict the Success of FCS to FBS Transfer Quarterbacks?

PORTFOLIO

9/29/20243 min read

Since 2020, there have been 53 quarterbacks who have transferred from the FCS to FBS level. These quarterbacks have had a wide range of success. Quarterbacks like Shedeur Sander, Cam Ward, and Bailey Zappe have gone on to do amazing things at the FBS level and some transfers (won’t name any names) didn’t even take a snap. In fact, only 26% of FCS transfer quarterbacks started at the FBS level. In this report, we will be looking at the stats of these FCS QBs to see if there is a way to predict the success a QB will have at the highest level of college football. 

 

Process

First, I used HeroSports.com, ESPN, and NCAA.com to get the list of FCS transfers and their stats at both levels. I uploaded the data into Excel and ran a regression analysis to identify if there is any correlation between a QB’s FCS stats and whether they became a starter at their new FBS school. Below is synopsis of the findings from the multiple linear regression.

  • R-Square: 0.358 - This indicates that about 35.8% of the variance in FBS starting status can be explained by the FCS stats included in the model.

  • Significance (p-value): 0.061 - Close to the threshold of 0.05, suggesting the overall model is moderately significant but not conclusive.

Key Variables and Their Impact:

  • Completion Percentage (p = 0.340): Completion percentage also had a coefficient of .037 which was one of the higher coefficients (meaning that that it has more correlation to starting in the FBS than other stats, however still insignificant). This p-value is not near the significant number of .05, so this is not statistically significant.

  • Passing Yards (p = 0.555): A slight positive influence, yet with high variability, indicating that passing yards alone are not a strong predictor.

  • Rushing Yards (p = 0.185): Though not statistically significant, rushing yards showed a stronger relationship than passing stats. Maybe not surprising to some, but this shows that dual-threat quarterbacks tend to have a higher chance of starting at the FBS level.

  • Rushing Touchdowns (p = 0.116): Also not significant, but like rushing yards, they have a more pronounced effect on starting at the FBS level compared to passing stats.

The regression analysis suggests that FCS statistics, particularly rushing ability, offer some insight into predicting whether a quarterback will start at the FBS level. However, with an adjusted R-square of 0.179, it's clear that many non-statistical factors, such as leadership, adaptability, and football IQ are likely just as important for making the transition from FCS to FBS successful.

 

FCS vs. Non-FBS Starters Comparison 

In comparing the stats of FCS quarterbacks who went on to start at the FBS level with those who did not, the differences are clearer. Future FBS starters show stronger passing, rushing, and efficiency numbers. 

No surprise, this breakdown shows that future FBS starters have better overall stats across the board. They also tend to have more starting experience. These quarterbacks tend to be more productive in their FCS play, which could signal their ability to transition to FBS competition. 

 

So are the starters actually succeeding?

When comparing the average FCS and FBS stats of the quarterbacks who played at both levels, the differences are often small. For instance, the completion percentage, passing touchdowns, and passer rating are similar between the two groups.  There is a slight decline in many of the stats, which makes sense because the FBS level is more competitive. This also means that you shouldn’t expect the FCS transfer to take a big step forward at the FBS level.

Wrapping Up

 FCS stats alone aren’t enough to guarantee a quarterback will start at the FBS level. While a quarterback with good rushing numbers or a high number of passing touchdowns might have an edge, the overall transition relies on much more than stats.

For current FCS quarterbacks wanting to test their ability at the FBS level, the numbers suggest being hesitant of making the jump. With only 26% of FCS quarterback transfers starting in the FBS, unless you are an FCS QB collecting 3,000+ total yards and 20+ touchdowns, chances of success at the FBS level are low.